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In this strategic update, we will analyze why it is vital for Ukraine to maintain control of Velyka Novosilka, whether or not the recent criticisms of various analysts regarding the rapid Russian advance in the area are correct, and what the Ukrainian bet has been in the situation generated after the fall of Vuhledar.
Recently, several military analysts have raised the alarm about the potential consequences of a hypothetical fall of Velyka Novosilka. One of the most alarming is that Velyka Novosilka is the eastern end of the southern double defensive line, which covers some 120 km from the Kamianske area. This formidable double line is logically configured to deal with attacks coming from the south, while if Russian forces were to manage to overrun Velyka Novosilka they could start attacking the double line from the flank or even from the rear of the double line, with the potential to create enormous damage to these defensive lines. Secondly, Velyka Novosilka is an important defensive node, supporting all defensive efforts in the area, including the support of Kurahove. Notably, Velyka Novosilka was the center of operations of the Ukrainian counteroffensive in 2023. A potential loss of Velyka Novosilka also adds difficulties to the maintenance the defense of Kurahove, and thus facilitating the Russian advance towards Pokrovsk.
For these reasons in the past few days, different Ukrainian military analysts have vehemently expressed their criticism of the rapid advance of Russian troops in recent weeks. The criticism focuses on the failure to build sufficient defensive lines and fortifications in strategic locations to stop or at least slow down the Russian advance after the fall of Vuhledar. There was also criticism of the lack of enough mined areas in the approach of Velyka Novosilka.
However, we have now a better understanding of the decisions of the Ukrainian command. If we look at the topographic map, we can see no geographical features conducive to establishing adequate defensive lines between Vuhledar and Velyka Novosilka. These large empty areas make it difficult to develop defensive zones without being isolated and also make it challenging to have densely mined areas. For these reasons, once in Vuhledar, the Russian forces have advanced from elevated positions with hardly any impediments. However, for the same reason Russian supply lines had to be largely starched to reach the line of contact, allowing the Ukrainians to better attack the Russian logistical efforts.
But in a more critical way, the Ukrainian command has bet on trading territory in exchange for lives and time, with the objective of concentrating the defensive efforts in more valuable points with better geographical conditions for preparing defensive lines and strong points. That is: Velyka Novosilka.
In Velyka Novosilka the Ukrainian forces can rely firstly on the Mokri Yaly river, and the elevated areas just west of the river, to hold the Russian advance east of the river. Secondly, to the south the Ukrainian forces can rely on the Volona River to contain the Russians advancing from the south from getting past Rivnopil. Finally, in the worst case scenario, already inside Velyka Novosilka the Russians will find it much more difficult to attack inside the urban area.
And the proof that the Ukrainian bet is on the right track is that the Russian advance has not only been halted in the direct approach to Velyka Novosilka, but even the Ukrainians in recent hours have been able to regain certain areas north of Velyka Novosilka, in particular Novyi Kormar and Rozdolne. Currently, the Russians, unable to continue on a direct route to Velyka Novosilka, are attempting flanking maneuvers over the settlement, hampered by the geographical features mentioned above.
Finally, we must note a critical factor here: that, ultimately, the resistance of Velyka Novosilka will be dependent on the maintenance of supply routes, particularly the one linking Velyka Novosilka with Hulyaipole. There are no suitable routes from Velyka Novosilka to the northwest, and the only road running north from Novyi Kormar along the river is a very secondary road likely to present mud problems at this time of the year. Therefore, right now, Russian forces are focusing on Rivnopil and Novodarivka to cut this critical route connecting to Hulyaipole.
Overall, as the days have gone by, we have been able to better understand the Ukrainian command's bet in recent weeks in the area between Vuhledar and Velyka Novosilka: to trade territory in exchange for time and lives with which to increase the chances of holding a critical point of greater strategic value: Velyka Novosilka. This is a long-term bet, understanding that Russian forces are taking a record level of personnel losses, with a ratio in Kurakhove favorable to Ukrainians of at least 8 to 1, which is not possible to maintain indefinitely. If the western allies maintain support for Ukraine and its own arms industry and manpower efforts are well managed, all these territories can be recovered in future Ukrainian counter-offensives. For the moment, the Ukrainian command's bet is paying off, the Russian advance has been completely halted at Velyka Novosilka and Ukrainian forces now have the opportunity to establish a robust defensive line along the Mokri Yaly river and make the western part of Velyka Novosilka a stronghold from which the Russians cannot pass.
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