Checkmate. Ukrainians Encircle the Main Russian Strike Force | War in Ukraine Explained

The situation in Vovchansk remains highly dynamic, with both sides launching offensive actions in an effort to seize the initiative.

Russian forces continue their efforts to advance southward to the other bank of the Vovcha River, and even cross it, for two main reasons. 

Firstly, they are attempting to rescue the remaining Russian troops who have been trapped in the aggregate plant for over a month, surviving only thanks to drone-supplied food and ammunition. 

Secondly, re-establishing a connection with the aggregate plant stronghold would allow them to use it as a launching point to undermine Ukrainian forces in the Citadel. By doing so, they aim to jeopardize the supply of ammunition and personnel, which is currently conducted via various river crossings east of the aggregate plant.

A renowned Russian military analyst recently stated that the Russian Army has advanced on the opposite bank of the Vovcha, reaching the agricultural school. There are conflicting reports about the size of Russian forces south of the river, but it is confirmed that clashes with reconnaissance units have indeed occurred.

In direct response to the Russian advances to the south, Ukrainian forces launched a bold counterattack from the opposite bank of the Vovcha River. They crossed the bridge leading to Haharina Street and advanced eastward, recapturing several buildings on Haharina and Shevchenka Streets. This maneuver aims to connect with ongoing Ukrainian efforts to achieve a pincer movement, encircling a significantly larger number of Russian forces than those they were initially trying to rescue from the aggregate plant.

If successful, this operation will not only eliminate the threat to Ukrainian forces stationed in the Citadel stronghold but will also render the presence of Russian forces in the northern residential area of Vovchansk untenable. Currently, Ukrainian forces are attempting to outflank the hospital, which remains under Russian control.

Recent geolocated images reveal a Russian FPV drone attack on a building just north of School number 2, confirming the presence of Ukrainian forces in that area. Earlier geolocated images documented Russian bombardments against positions just across the Haharina Street bridge, highlighting efforts to disrupt the Ukrainian force buildup that subsequently crossed the river and secured the area east of the hospital. You can find the complete and uncensored video of the attacks in our Telegram channel.

This pincer movement poses an imminent risk of encirclement for Russian forces remaining south, including those entrenched at the aggregate plant. While the Russian forces still retain a narrow corridor through which they could theoretically attempt to break out and escape, it may already be too late. Ukrainian forces have recently established control over this corridor with several machine gun posts, potentially cutting off any escape route for the encircled Russian troops.

The Ukrainian Kharkiv Group of Forces has reported that Russian forces are attempting to regroup in the direction of Vovchansk, preparing various regiments and brigades for assaults within the city. Additionally, Russian authorities have recently imposed restrictions on visiting certain border villages, likely to conceal the true number of troops stationed there. The motive is clear: the initial rescue operation for the aggregate plant failed disastrously, necessitating an even larger rescue effort to prevent the encirclement of the rescuers themselves.

Overall, the situation in Vovchansk has deteriorated significantly for the Russians, who are now desperately trying to avoid the encirclement and surrender of several hundred soldiers. Such a surrender would deal a severe blow to the morale of their troops along the entire front line. 

The overextension of Russian advances, especially in the logistically challenging area, and their reliance on reinforcements have left their positions vulnerable. With much of the northern part of the city virtually leveled, northern Vovchansk has lost much of its tactical importance, as establishing strongholds there will soon be very difficult. Nonetheless, Vovchansk may soon become a symbol of the turning tide on the front, indicating that the momentum is shifting in favor of the Ukrainian troops.