Flooding the Frontlines: Russia's Dam Destruction Strategy

Today there are a lot of updates from the Kurakhove direction.

Here, Russian forces continue pushing to maintain the momentum and to make tactically significant gains in the region with two main vectors of attack– north and south of Kurakhove. The main Russian objective in this direction is to even out the frontline and eliminate the Ukrainian salient in western Donetsk Oblast. To support their efforts and to cut off the defenders of Kurakhove from the north the Russians damaged a dam and caused local flooding. 

The most intense fighting is currently taking place in the northern sector of the Kurakhove front, where Russian assault groups have launched daily frontal attacks over the past week to breach the settlement—so far without significant success. Ukrainian forces have established a strong defensive line and are employing drone reconnaissance units to track enemy movements. This strategy enables them to intercept Russian armored columns in and around the neighboring village of Makymilyanivka, engaging them preemptively before they can reach Kurakhove's outskirts. In recent days, Ukrainian soldiers have shared various geolocated footage showing targeted strikes on enemy vehicles using artillery and FPV drones, as well as the use of drone-dropped grenades to eliminate surviving crew members.

After losing wave after wave of troops and equipment in frontal attacks, Russian commanders were forced to look for alternative routes, so they decided to try to bypass the defenders on the eastern edge of the city. 

Initially, Russian forces attempted to advance southward toward the small village of Dalne. Faced with densely mined open fields ahead of it, they proceeded without armored vehicle support, relying instead on infantry to navigate through local tree lines for cover. However, this approach proved ineffective, as Ukrainian drone operators from the 33rd Mechanized Brigade quickly detected their movements. Once identified, the Russian troops came under intense artillery fire, forcing them to seek cover. Ukrainian forces then deployed FPV drones to track and eliminate any remaining soldiers. To ensure that no Russian troops could establish a foothold near Dalne, the Ukrainians intensified their efforts, utilizing Leopard 2A4 tanks and M113 armored personnel carriers for heavy fire support to secure and clear the area.

After seeing that it would be impossible to break through these positions with infantry alone, the Russians sent in another wave this time consisting of more than 10 armored vehicles, including a turtle tank. Ukrainian defenders quickly intercepted the assault group with precise artillery fire, immobilizing several vehicles and scattering the rest of them in various directions. Geolocated footage offers a rare glimpse into the decisive role played by Leopard tanks, which demonstrated their destructive power by eliminating multiple Russian armored targets with their formidable main cannons, effectively halting the offensive push. 

Simultaneously, Russians also tried to advance north of Kurakhove with the main targets being the villages of Novoselydivka and Sontsivka. They were hopeful that the applied pressure in front and south of Kurakhove would lead to the Ukrainian defense overstretching its limits, which would allow the Russians to quickly capture all villages north of the Kurakhove water reservoir, reach Stary Terny and ultimately cut off the vital supply route to the west along the H-15 highway. 

Units from the Russian 114th Motorized Rifle Brigade recently pushed into central Novoselydivka, where intense fighting for control of the village continues. At the same time, Russian reconnaissance forces managed to stage a surprise entry into the nearby village of Sontsivka using vehicles and motorcycles. However, their presence was swiftly eliminated, as evidenced by geolocated images capturing the aftermath along the settlement's main road.

After realizing that a breakthrough from the north was unattainable due to strong resistance, Russian forces shifted tactics to disrupt Ukrainian logistics. This included blowing up the wall of the Ternivska dam, resulting in regional flooding along the Vovcha River. As early as September, Russians had intensified air, and ballistic missile strikes targeting the Kurakhove Reservoir's dams to hinder Ukrainian supply lines and force reliance on dirt roads. With the onset of the rainy season, these alternative routes have become even more challenging to navigate, prompting Russia to escalate its attacks. According to Roman Padun, head of the Ukrainian Kurakhove military administration, an explosion at the Ternivska dam has caused significant water flow, but local authorities are unable to fully assess the damage due to persistent Russian shelling. Among the potential advantages that Russian forces could gain from the damage to the dam is also the possibility of a long-lasting flooding west of the reservoir could split up Ukrainian forces north and south of Kurakhove and worsen their level of coordination. 

Geolocated footage confirmed later the damage to the dam with Ukrainian officials stating that even though 15 million cubic meters of water had spilled, and the flow continues, the entire reservoir will not empty and no significant flooding can be observed west of the dam along the Vovcha River. Ukrainian officers commented that roads near the dam are usable but that the movement of armored vehicles on dirt roads is limited. 

Overall, the Russians remain focused on securing control over the salient around Kurakhove as quickly as possible. The Institute for the Study of War has pointed out that even if Russian forces achieve this, it will not necessarily lead to the collapse of the entire front line in Donetsk Oblast, as Ukrainian troops could fall back to more defensible positions in settlements further west. Grinding Russian assaults will likely continue in the coming weeks as the Russian military strives to retain the theater-wide initiative. However, this relentless effort comes at a significant cost to their manpower and equipment, which could eventually lead to the culmination of their offensive. Such a scenario may present Ukrainian forces with a chance to contest and potentially seize the battlefield initiative.

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